Monday 30 March 2015

Morning Mumble: (Holiday Mode) EMED Plc & CAML, and a QPP Cheeky One!

Good Morning, 

Its pleasing to see a decent amount of news-flow on a Monday.

EMED have an extension to the loan facility. This extension reads as though a strong armed is being applied to force (or appear to) force EMED into accept 'some' terms that are on the table currently from the 'three' (Trafigura, Orion Mine Finance and Hong Kong Xiangguang International). One assumes they'll be able to organise a meeting by 30 April 2015 to avoid incurring extension fees. 

Some egg on the faces of those with very large positions in QPP (Quindell) today, with the gossip proving right. QPP, for those with any interest now, was something to avoid as the risks being significantly unknown. It was surprising to speak to such a well-versed trader today whose position was impacted by the news in Australia of Slater & Gordon overnight. One for the learning curve?! Today it would have been rude not to have a cheeky short "on the news." 

Central Asia Metals (CAML) full-year results beat even the most bullish expectations, dividend up, revenues up and profit beating the whisper by near 30%. Return on shareholder funds even allowing for FX impairments and rebalancing of Kenges Rakishev 16.02% holding, are positive. 

Improving EPS, bottom line and the Tenge devaluation aiding costs CAML's cause. 60% of the cost base is Kazakhstan Tenge. Expects further bottom line improvements as the full affects of the Tenge devaluation kick in, assuming production levels are maintained. 

With the copper market adopting a more realistic outlook, even with the current prices, its hard not to justify 'turning positive on CAML (again). See  EMC: CAML from January. The EMC is slowly getting over its issue with the director sales by Mr Nick Clarke, Chief Executive Officer, although one will always have an issue with a director without skin in the game? We'll save that for another day, expect a special dividend in due course. 

Arian Silver (AGQ) achieves first concentrate production at San José, with the more recent net smelter royalty purchase AGQ's woes may just about to turn. Today's "not" very interesting news is Bluefield Solar (BSIF) most recent acquisition, those SIPP investors will find it hard not to have some form of lower risk stability, with a yield of just under 6% isn't too be sniffed at (EMC 2014 (BSIF).  AND, GKP (Gulf Keystone) get an extension on their homework!

Anglo American's (AAL's)  inability to sell its assets and now looking to give them away doesn't bode well for Jubilee Platinum's (JLP) Tjate project in the mid-to-long-term. Blackrock realising AAL's woes a little too late, or perhaps "just in time" and selling down.


The news award goes to Randgold Resources (RRS), whom see growth opportunities.

Atb Fraser

10 comments:

  1. Forgot the Kingfisher http://www.investegate.co.uk/kingfisher-plc--kgf-/rns/mr-bricolage-final-update/201503300803588078I/ Bricolage whoops, with disagreement with Franchisee's. This might actually prove unsurprisingly beneficial to Kingfisher, whom appear to be discounting further more recently (albeit on trend). Atb Fraser

    ReplyDelete
  2. Fraser- Hi- Off down the cricket today, but the early action is over now and a quiet day expected... Lets see as FTSE comes off todays highs.

    V good news for CAML, cash costs below my estimates here at 71c/pound and fully absorbed costs at $1.30/pound are up by cover expansion costs. I cant find a lower cost copper producer, aided by the fact they don't have to mine. Copper Bay could be a nice money spinner if they can limit capex, its a clean up op for the Chilean auths so they will no doubt approve fairly quickly if the numbers stack up as they do for me here. Well done CAML. Im happy to hold in my v long portfolio given delivery of promises here.

    Re EMED- Yes, the 3 major holders are looking for better conversion rights and there will be an equity raise from the plebs (me et al) but the cost savings should now be well over $50m or Phase 1, and Phase 1 cashflow will help with Phase 2 in 2016, so we all await the full financing package RNS in the next few weeks. If they only had one major holder (ie Baobab) the outcome could have been quite different but they have been lucky to have 3 and all 3 have different plans and angles.

    Cheers. The Leggie

    ReplyDelete
  3. fjp http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2015-03-16/ strange things did happen, amateur indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  4. On the Chinese front, http://www.ft.com/fastft/300203/china-lowers-2nd-home-deposits-boost-market (Second Hoe Deposit changes) and....

    http://www.ft.com/fastft/299903/global-markets-overview-32 China rallies after PBoC hints at policy easing. Any surprises?

    Back-door stimulus?

    Cheers Fraser

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Fraser and Leggie. Sorry for OT, but do you thing GKP BHs will drop the BER clause? It's looking more opaque with each passing day.
    Thanks,
    Tony

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tony, it's a good bargaining tool. GKP need cash and the BER (book-to-equity-ratio) level means they can demand repayment below 0.4. So whilst one is consenting to assess the possibilities, you never throw your hand in. The BER is leverage either in rate uplift or repayment. It won't be dropped without a significant change in GKP's fortunes, just waived (temporarily). Atb Fraser

      Delete
    2. Thanks Fraser. Interesting mention of XOM in Sky piece, though still a lot of spring cleaning to do at GKP before anyone thinks of tabling a bid.

      Delete
    3. Exxon Mobil (XOM) are one of a limited few that are interested, although if one looks at the "extension" requests, this contradicts this statement (totally). Atb Fraser

      Delete
    4. Hi Tony- Been at cricket today so just warming up and catching up here. BER clauses are quite useful to protect bondholders and ensure mgmt. don't get too carried away with debt issuance, and have to raise equity to match on occasions. I agree with Fraser that they want to ensure they get some concessions before waiving it this time, but the key for GKP is to hold out until the Kurdish payments start to resume and hope that they are regularised, not adhoc. So an announcement with those sorts of statement will be needed to stop the rot for them, and that's obviously outside of their hands. GKPs wells have been tricky to develop and they may only get 10% of the oil out, if one takes a view of some of the engineering reports that are flying about re Shaikan and the other heavy oil wells. I would see the Chinese as being more interested than XOM, but there are some many cheap cash strapped oilers around so they are likely to pursued on a low ball basis if at all.
      I hope that helps.

      Cheers. The Leggie

      Delete
    5. Thanks Leggie, always insightful.
      Cheers,
      Tony

      Delete